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Chapters
- Management Summary
- Research Design & Time Line
- Environment & Native American Culture
- GIS Design
- Archaeological Database
- Archaeological & Environmental Variables
- Model Development & Evaluation
- Model Results & Interpretation
- Project Applications
- Model Enhancements
- Model Implementation
- Landscape Suitability Models
- Summary & Recommendations
Appendices
- Archaeological Predictive Modeling: An Overview
- GIS Standards & Procedures
- Archaeology Field Survey Standards, Procedures & Rationale
- Archaeology Field Survey Results
- Geomorphology Survey Profiles, Sections, & Lists
- Building a Macrophysical Climate Model for the State of Minnesota
- Correspondence of Support for Mn/Model
- Glossary
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Acknowledgments
List of Tables
Table 3.1 Climatic Episodes in the Early, Middle, and Late Holocene
Table 3.2 Ecological Classifications System Organization
Table 3.3 Distinctions Between ECS Provinces
Table 3.4 Distinctions Between Sections of the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province
Table 3.5 Distinctions Between Subsections of the Northern Minnesota Drift & Lake Plains Section
Table 4.2 Relationship Between Map Scale and the Minimum Mapping Unit
Table 4.3 Values for Variables in Phase 2 Data Confidence Model
Table 4.6 Weights Assigned to Variables in Phase 3 Data Confidence Model
Table 4.7 Comparison of Mn/Model Study Area Size with that of Selected Previous Predictive Models
Table 4.8 Archaeological Subregions and Subregion Groups Modeled in Phase 2
Table 5.1 Summary Statistics for Seven Counties Surveyed for the MnSAS and Mn/Model
Table 5.2 Summary Statistics for the Comparison of Site Occurrences Between Mn/Model and the MnSAS.
Table 5.3 Summary Site Occurrence Statistics for Six Counties Surveyed for Mn/Model
Table 5.5 Summary of Information Included in the Mn/Model Archaeological Database
Table 5.5a Summary of Information Included in the Phase 3 Mn/Model Archaeological Database
Table 5.5b Sites in the Mn/Model Database that are Erroneously Coded as Negative Surveys
Table 5.6 Mn/Model Survey Report Inclusion Criteria
Table 6.1 Environmental Variables Used in Phase 2 and 3 Modeling
Table 6.2 Counties with High Resolution Digital Soil Surveys Available in Phase 2
Table 6.3 River Valleys and Upland Landforms Mapped
Table 7.3 Association of Known Archaeological Sites with Slope
Table 7.4 Approximate Correspondence Between Degrees Slope and Percent Slope
Table 7.5 Distribution of Water, Steep Slope, and Mines in Phase 2 Regions
Table 7.6 Best Phase 2 Site Probability Model (Excluding Single Artifacts)
Table 7.7 Hypothetical Distribution of Site Probability Model among 20 Site Potential Classes
Table 7.8 Evaluation of Site Probability Model Agreement, Anoka Sand Plain Subsection
Table 8.5.1 List of Model Subsections Arranged by the Number of Hydrologic Variables
Table 8.5.2 Model Variables Arranged According to Subsection and Subsection Groups
Table 8.6.2 Best Phase 2 Basic Models (Excluding Single Artifacts)
Table 8.6.3 Best Phase 2 Basic Models (Excluding Single Artifacts and Lithic Scatters)
Table 8.6.4 Comparison of Phase 2 Models with and without Lithic Scatters
Table 8.6.5 Evaluation of Best Phase 1 Model vs. Best Phase 2 Model (Excluding Single Artifacts)
Table 8.6.9 Raw Model Values for Models Excluding Single Artifacts
Table 8.6.10 Raw Model Values for Models Excluding Single Artifacts and Lithic Scatters
Table 8.6.11 Site Probability Model Performance for all 20 Regions Modeled in Phase 3
Table 8.6.12 Comparison of Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3 Site Probability Models
Table 8.6.14 Survey Probability Model Performance for all 20 Regions Modeled in Phase 3
Table 8.6.16 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model for all 20 Regions Modeled in Phase 3
Table 8.6.17 Evaluation of Site Potential Outside the Unknown Zone
Table 8.6.18 Site Probability Model from Statewide Database
Table 8.6.19 Evaluation of Site Probability Model from Statewide Database
Agassiz Lowlands
Table 8.7.1 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Mode
Table 8.7.2 Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.7.3 Evaluation of Agassiz Lowlands Portion of Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.7.4 Conditional Kappa Values for the Agassiz Lowlands Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.7.5 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.7.6 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.7.7 Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.7.8 Evaluation of Agassiz Lowlands Portion of Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.7.9 Conditional Kappa Values for the Individual Survey Probability Model
Table 8.7.11 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Anoka Sand Plain
Table 8.8.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.8.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.8.3 Conditional Kappa Values
Table 8.8.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.8.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.8.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.8.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.8.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.8.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.8.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Aspen Parklands
Table 8.9.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.9.2 Evaluation of Aspen Parklands Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.9.3 Evaluation of Aspen Parklands Portion of the Reclassified Site Probability Model
Table 8.9.4 Conditional Kappa Values of Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.9.5 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.9.6 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.9.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.9.8 Evaluation of Aspen Parklands Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.9.9 Conditional Kappa Values for the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.9.10 Evaluation of Portion of Survey Implementation Model
Big Woods
Table 8.10.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.10.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.10.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.10.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.10.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.10.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.10.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.10.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.10.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.10.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Blufflands
Table 8.11.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.11.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.11.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.11.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.11.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.11.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.11.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.11.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.11.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.11.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Border Lakes
Table 8.12.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.12.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.12.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.12.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.12.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.12.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.12.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.12.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.12.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.12.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Chippewa Plains
Table 8.13.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.13.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.13.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.13.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.13.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.13.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.13.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.13.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.13.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.13.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Coteau Moraines and Inner Coteau Subsections of North Central Glaciated Plains Section
Table 8.14.1 Site Probability Model, Inner Coteau and Coteau Moraines Subsections
Table 8.14.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.3 Conditional Kappa Values of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.4 Evaluation of Coteau Moraines Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.5 Conditional Kappa Values for the Coteau Moraines Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.6 Evaluation of Inner Coteau Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.7 Conditional Kappa Values for Inner Coteau Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.14.8 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.14.9 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.14.11 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.14.12 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model, Inner Coteau and Coteau Moraines Subsections
Table 8.14.14 Evaluation of the Coteau Moraines Portion of the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.14.16 Evaluation of the Inner Coteau Portion of the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.14.17 Conditional Kappa Values for the Inner Coteau Portion of the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.14.18 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Glacial Lake Superior Plain / North Shore Highlands / Nashwauk Uplands
Table 8.15.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.4 Evaluation of Glacial Lake Superior Plain Potion of Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.6 Evaluation of North Shore Highlands Portion of Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.8 Evaluation of Nashwauk Uplands Portion of Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Nashwauk Uplands Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.15.10 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.15.11 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.15.12 Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.13 Evaluation of Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.14 Conditional Kappa Values of the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.15 Evaluation of Glacial Lake Superior Plain Portion of Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.17 Evaluation of North Shore Highlands Portion of Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.19 Evaluation of Nashwauk Uplands Portion of Combined Survey Probability Model
Table 8.15.21 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Hardwood Hills
Table 8.16.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.16.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.16.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.16.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.16.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.16.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.16.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.16.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.16.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.16.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Laurentian Highlands
Table 8.17.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.17.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.17.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.17.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.17.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.17.6 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.17.7 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.17.8 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.17.9 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Littlefork-Vermilion Uplands
Table 8.18.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.18.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.18.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.18.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.18.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.18.6 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.18.7 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.18.8 Conditional Kappa Values for Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.18.9 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Mille Lacs Uplands
Table 8.19.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.19.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.19.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.19.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.19.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.19.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.19.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.19.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.19.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.19.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Minnesota River Prairie
Table 8.20.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.20.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.20.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.20.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.20.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.20.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.20.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.20.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.20.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.20.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Oak Savanna
Table 8.21.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.21.2 Evaluation of the Oak Savanna Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.21.3 Conditional Kappa Values for the Oak Savanna Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.21.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.21.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.21.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.21.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.21.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.21.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.21.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Pine Moraines & Outwash Plains
Table 8.22.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.22.2 Evaluation of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.22.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.22.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.22.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.22.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.22.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.22.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.22.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.22.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Red River Prairie
Table 8.23.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.23.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.23.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.23.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.23.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.23.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.23.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.23.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.23.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.23.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
Rochester Plateau
Table 8.24.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.24.2 Evaluation of Rochester Plateau Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.24.3 Conditional Kappa Values of Portion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.24.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.24.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.24.6 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.24.7 Evaluation of Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.24.8 Conditional Kappa Values for Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.24.9 Evaluation of Portion of Survey Implementation Model
St. Croix Moraines & Outwash Plains
Table 8.25.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.25.2 Evaluation of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.25.3 Conditional Kappa Values of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.25.4 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.25.5 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.25.6 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.25.7 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.25.8 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.25.9 Conditional Kappa Values for Survey Probability Model
Table 8.25.10 Evaluation of Survey Implementation Model
St. Louis Moraines and Tamarack Lowlands
Table 8.26.1 Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.2 Evaluation of Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.3 Conditional Kappa Values for Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.4 Evaluation of St. Louis Moraines Potion of Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.5 Conditional Kappa Values for St. Louis Moraines Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.6 Evaluation of Tamarack Lowlands Portion of Combined Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.7 Conditional Kappa Values for Tamarack Lowlands Portion of the Site Probability Model
Table 8.26.8 Model Variable Statistics
Table 8.26.9 Variable Correlation Matrix
Table 8.26.10 Summary of Bivariate Relationships
Table 8.26.11 Survey Probability Model
Table 8.26.12 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.26.13 Conditional Kappa Values of the Survey Probability Model
Table 8.26.14 Evaluation of St. Louis Moraines Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.26.16 Evaluation of Tamarack Lowlands Portion of Survey Probability Model
Table 8.26.18 Evaluation of Survey Probability Model
Table 10.1 Limitations of Data Sources
Table 11.1 Environmental and Cultural Data Layers Assembled to Construct the Models
Table 12.1 Map Unit Code Key for Mn/Model v.4.6
Table 12.2 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Minnesota River
Table 12.3 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Mississippi River
Table 12.4 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Rainy River
Table 12.5 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Red Lake Bog
Table 12.6 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Red River
Table 12.7 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Rock River
Table 12.8 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - Root River
Table 12.9 Manual of Landform-Sediment Assemblages - St. Croix River
Table B.1 FIPS Codes for Minnesota Counties
Table B.2 Scales and Formats of Mapped Bedrock Geology
Table B.3 Bedrock Groups or Formation of Interest for Mn/Model
Table B.4 Counties with County Soil Survey Data from EPPL7 Sources, Phase 2
Table B.5 Archaeological Regions of Minnesota
Table B.6 Counties within Each Archaeological Region in Minnesota
Table B.7 Counties in Phase 3 Modeling Regions and ECS Subsections
Table B.8 Attributes of ARCHDATA
Table B.9 Differences in Elevation between Digital Data Sources and USGS 7.5' quadrangle maps
Table B.10 Differences between 1:24,000 Digital Data Sources and 1:250,000 MGC100 Data
Table B.11 Assignment of Values to General Water Regime. National Wetlands Inventory
Table B.12 Classification of Wetland Vegetation Types from NWI
Table B.13 Criteria for Assigning H20_TYPE from NWI
Table B.14 Criteria for Classifying Water Body Regime from NWI
Table B.15 Criteria for Classifying Wetlands for NWI_WET Grid
Table B.16 Criteria for Classifying H20 for Creation of LAKE1 Grid
Table B.17 Criteria for Classifying Wetlands for WET1 Grid
Table B.18 Reservoir Lakes Modified for Modeling
Table B.23 Bedrock Group Coding for Mn/Model
Table B.24 Values for DRAIN30 Grid
Table B.25 Soil Texture Classes
Table B.27 Texture Class Reassignments for all Records Initially Classified as VAR
Table B.28 Suitability of Soil Texture Classes for Archaeological Sites
Table B.31 Mean Values of AvAWC for Textural Classes, Added to Records with NODATA for this Variable
Table B.32 Mean Values of AvOM for Textural Classes, Added to Records with NODATA for this Variable
Table B.33 Mean Values of AvPh for Textural Classes, Added to Records with NODATA for this Variable
Table B.34 Attributes of SOILS Grid
Table B.35 Values for M_VEG Grid
Table B.36 Attributes of Values for T_VEG Coverage and Correspondence to Symbols on Source Maps
Table B.37 Attributes for T_CULT Coverage
Table B.38 Attributes Values for T_RDS Coverage and Correspondence to Symbols on Source Maps
Table B.39 Attributes of TR_CLAIM Coverage
Table B.40 Environmental Variables Used in Mn/Model
Table B.41 Values Used for Solar Altitude (SA) in each Archaeological Region
Table B.42 Variables Transformed for Phase 3 Modeling
Table B.43 Model Input Form for Logistic Regression in S-Plus
Table B.44 Model Results Form for Logistic Regression in S-Plus
Table B.45 Variables of Model Grids in Phase 3
Table B.46 Phase 2 Model Classification Form
Table B.47 Phase 2 Worksheet for Model Classification
Table B.48 Reclassification Table for Deriving Final Probability Models
Table B.49 Phase 3 Model Classification Form
Table B.50 Phase 1 Model Evaluation Form
Table B.51 Phase 3 Model Evaluation Form
Table B.52 RMS-error, Chi-Square, and P-values for Phase 3 Models
Table B.53 Lowest Resolution Database in Phase 3 Site Probability Models by Subsections
Table B.54 Number of Sites in Modeled Population
Table B.55 Impact of Errors in ARCHDATA.PAT on Models
Table B.56 Results of Logistic Regression in GRID
Table C.1 Stratification Outline
Table D.1 Becker County Cultural Material
Table D.2 Beltrami County Cultural Material
Table D.3 Nicollet County Cultural Material
Table D.4 Stearns County Cultural Material
Table D.5 Cass County Surveyed Random Points
Table D.6 Cass County Non-Surveyed Random Points
Table D.7 Cass County Cultural Material
Table D.8 Wabasha County Surveyed Random Points
Table D.9 Wabasha County Non-Surveyed Random Points
Table D.10 Wabasha County Cultural Material
Table D.11 Wright County Surveyed Random Points
Table D.12 Wright County Non-Surveyed Random Points
Table D.13 Wright County Cultural Material
Table E.1 Master List of Sampled Organics and Identifications
Table E.2 Master List of Mn/Model Radiocarbon Dates
The Mn/Model Final Report (Phases 1-3) is available on CD-ROM. Copies may be requested by visiting the contact page.
Acknowledgements
MnModel was financed with Transportation Enhancement and State Planning and Research funds from the Federal Highway Administration and a Minnesota Department of Transportation match.
Copyright Notice
The MnModel process and the predictive models it produced are copyrighted by the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT), 2000. They may not be used without MnDOT's consent.